Introduction

Crude-Oil Stockpiles

The average of estimates from 10 analysts and traders suggests that U.S. commercial crude-oil stockpiles are projected to have decreased by 1.3 million barrels for the week ended July 28. Out of the ten forecasters, eight are predicting a decrease, while two anticipate a week-on-week increase. The range of expectations varies from a decrease of 4 million barrels to an increase of 1.9 million barrels.

Gasoline Inventories

In addition to crude oil, gasoline inventories are also expected to fall by 1.3 million barrels from the previous week, according to analysts. Estimates range from a decrease of 3 million barrels to an increase of 1.1 million barrels. These figures highlight the potential challenges faced by the gasoline market, as supply may not be able to keep up with demand.

Distillate Stocks

Stocks of distillates, primarily diesel fuel, are anticipated to decline by a marginal 100,000 barrels from the previous week. Forecasts for this category range from a decrease of 3 million barrels to an increase of 1.4 million barrels. Although the expected changes are relatively small compared to crude oil and gasoline, they still indicate potential shifts in demand and supply dynamics for diesel fuel.

Conclusion

The upcoming release of inventory data from the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration will provide valuable insights into the state of U.S. crude-oil stockpiles, gasoline inventories, and distillate stocks. Analysts and traders have made projections, suggesting declines in stockpiles for the week ended July 28. These projections highlight potential changes in supply and demand dynamics within the oil market.

Refinery Use Expected to Slightly Decline

According to industry experts, refinery use in the United States is predicted to drop by 0.1 percentage point compared to the previous week, reaching 93.3%. Analyst forecasts vary, with some expecting a decrease of 0.8 percentage point and others predicting an increase of 0.5 percentage point.

Analyst Forecasts for Crude, Gasoline, Distillates, and Refinery Use

The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported significant changes in key inventory levels for the week. Crude supplies experienced a notable drop of 15.4 million barrels, while gasoline stocks declined by 1.7 million barrels. Diesel inventories also saw a decrease of 512,000 barrels, as indicated by an industry source.

Analysts from various firms have provided their forecasts for crude, gasoline, distillates, and refinery use. Here are the average predictions:

• Crude: -1.3 million barrels
• Gasoline: -1.3 million barrels
• Distillates: -0.1 million barrels
• Refinery Use: -0.1 percentage point

Analyst Forecasts (in millions of barrels)

| Analyst | Crude | Gasoline | Distillates | Refinery Use | | ---------------------------- | ------ | -------- | ----------- | ------------ | | Again Capital | -1.1 | -0.8 | -1.2 | -0.8 | | Commodity Research Group | -2.5 | -1.6 | 0.7 | -0.6 | | Confluence Investment Mgmt | 1 | -1.5 | 1 | 0.5 | | DTN | -1.2 | -1 | 0.8 | 0.5 | | Excel Futures | 1.9 | 1.1 | 1.4 | -0.6 | | Spartan Capital Securities | -1.6 | -1.1 | 0.3 | n/f | | Mizuho | -1 | -2 | -0.5 | -0.5 | | Price Futures Group | -3 | -3 | -3 | 0.5 | | Ritterbusch and Associates | -1.9 | -1.5 | -0.8 | 0.3 | | Tradition Energy | -4 | -1.6 | 0.2 | n/f | | AVERAGE | -1.3 | -1.3 | -0.1 | -0.1 |

n/f = no forecast unch = unchanged