News

Uncertainty Surrounds Rep. Jim Jordan's Candidacy for Speaker of the House

James L. Flint

• October 17, 2023

The race for the next speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives is heating up as Rep. Jim Jordan's bid hangs in the balance. With a floor vote imminent, the Ohio Republican must secure the support of a majority in the narrowly divided chamber.

Following the removal of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy two weeks ago and the withdrawal of No.2 House Republican Steve Scalise last Thursday, the chamber is poised to vote at noon Eastern time to select a new speaker.

Considered a close ally of former President Donald Trump, Jordan won his party's nomination for the role on Friday. However, he requires at least 217 votes to assume the position. With no expected support from Democrats, he can only afford to have four fellow Republicans vote against him. Currently, the House consists of 221 Republicans, 212 Democrats, and two vacancies.

Despite accumulating significant endorsements on Monday, Jordan faces opposition from more than four House Republicans. CNN producer's chart below illustrates the number of lawmakers against him, with others leaning towards voting "no."

In January, it took 15 rounds of voting for McCarthy to secure the speakership. Throughout this process, around 20 fellow Republicans consistently voted against him before he ultimately emerged victorious.

According to Liam Donovan, a former GOP operative and now Principal at Bracewell, a law and lobbying firm, there are indications that Jordan may prevail once lawmakers are on record. However, the situation remains uncertain as of now.

Speaker Support and Government Shutdown Concerns

There is speculation among analysts about the potential consequences if support for Jordan declines in a second round of voting for the speaker position. The possibility of a government shutdown is being discussed, which could have an impact on markets such as the S&P 500 around mid-November when funding from the last month's continuing resolution is due to run out.

Matt Glassman, a senior fellow at Georgetown University’s Government Affairs Institute, pointed out that the level of support for Jordan in the second round of voting will be a key factor in determining the outcome.

Although Jordan has voted against the continuing resolution in the past and has opposed most government spending bills, there are differing opinions about his stance on a potential government shutdown. Brian Gardner, Stifel’s chief Washington policy strategist, suggests that because Jordan would be responsible for assisting vulnerable House Republicans representing competitive districts, he may not be comfortable with a shutdown. Gardner believes that Jordan's new role as speaker might require him to make compromises with Democrats, which would be uncharted territory for him. Therefore, it is more likely that if elected as speaker, Jordan will support an extension of the continuing resolution.

On Tuesday morning, U.S. stocks were trading lower. The market is currently grappling with geopolitical risk abroad, third-quarter earnings reports, and concerns about the American consumer's spending habits. This latest information has further fueled uncertainty surrounding potential interest-rate hikes.